Heading Toward Retirement Without a Number? You Are Not Alone

If you have ever pushed the question "How much will I actually need?" to the back of your mind, you have plenty of company.

A new 2026 study from Evergreen.ai, a financial-planning platform, found that about 42% of the household financial decision-makers it surveyed have never tried to calculate how much money they will need for retirement. Even among people who expect to retire within the next 15 years, roughly one in three has not run the number. MarketWatch reported on the findings this week under the headline that many Americans are heading toward retirement "blind."

That word sounds harsh, but the reasons behind it are very human. As one adviser told MarketWatch, people are busy, and nobody enjoys the possibility of bad news. Avoiding the question can feel easier than facing it.

Here is the gentle truth: knowing your number is not about fear. It is about clarity. And clarity tends to bring peace.

Why the number matters, especially in your 50s, 60s, and beyond

A few findings cited in the MarketWatch article help explain why this question deserves a quiet afternoon of attention:

• Worry is common. According to the Allianz Center for the Future of Retirement, 67% of Americans say they fear running out of money more than they fear death.
• Retirement often comes sooner than planned. The Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) found that 3 in 5 retirees stopped working before age 65, with a median retirement age of 62. Nearly half said they retired earlier than they had planned, often because of health, caregiving, or job changes.
• Health care is a real line item. Fidelity Investments estimates that a 65-year-old retiring in 2026 may spend an average of $185,500 on health care and medical expenses through retirement, and that estimate does not include long-term care.

None of these numbers are meant to alarm you. They simply show that retirement can arrive on its own schedule, last for decades, and include costs that are easy to underestimate. Having even a rough estimate gives you more room to adjust.

A season to "count the cost"

Jesus told a short parable about a man who wanted to build a tower. Before laying the first stone, he sat down to "count the cost, whether he has enough to complete it" (Luke 14:28). Proverbs offers a similar thought: "Know well the condition of your flocks" (Proverbs 27:23).

Counting the cost is not a sign of worry or a lack of faith. It is a form of stewardship. It helps us care well for what we have been given, for the people we love, and for the causes we want to support in the years ahead.

A simple way to start

You do not need a spreadsheet degree to begin. Here is a calm, step-by-step approach based on ideas the advisers in the article described.

1. Write down what you actually spend

Start with an honest picture of monthly spending. Many people find it is a bit higher than they expected. Separate it into two lists:

• Essentials: housing, utilities, food, insurance, transportation, health care.
• Discretionary: travel, gifts, dining out, hobbies, giving beyond your tithe.

2. Think about what changes in retirement

Some costs may go away, such as a mortgage that is paid off or expenses tied to raising children. Others may rise, especially health care. Inflation, taxes, and market ups and downs are also easy to overlook.

3. List your dependable income sources

Add up income you expect from sources like Social Security and any pensions. If you are married, consider both spouses. If you are widowed, review your survivor benefits and how your household income has changed, since this is often where the picture can change significantly.

4. Find the gap

Subtract your expected income from your expected spending. The difference is the amount your savings may need to provide each year.

5. Use a rule of thumb only as a starting point

One rule of thumb mentioned in the article is to multiply that yearly gap by 25. For example, a $40,000 yearly gap suggests a rough starting target of about $1 million. You may also hear about the "4% rule" or the idea of replacing about 80% of your working income.

These shortcuts can be helpful conversation starters, but they are not a plan. Every household is different. Your health, your spending, your faith-based giving, your taxes, and the timing of your Social Security claim can all change the picture.

What if the number is not what you hoped?

This is the part many people dread, and it is understandable. But finding out earlier usually means you have more options, not fewer. Depending on your situation, those options might include:

• adjusting how much you save in the years before retirement,
• reviewing when to claim Social Security,
• rethinking spending priorities,
• looking at how taxes affect withdrawals, or
• simply planning a more gradual transition out of work.

One adviser in the article put it simply: the more time you give yourself, the more flexibility you have. That is not a reason to rush. It is a reason to start, at whatever pace feels right.

For widows and those navigating life alone

If you have lost a spouse, the question "Do I have enough?" can feel heavier. Household income may have changed, and decisions that were once shared now rest with you. You do not have to sort it all out in one sitting. Taking the first small step, like writing down monthly spending, is meaningful progress.

A quiet next step

If you would like a simple place to begin, our free Retirement Scorecard takes a few minutes and can help you see which areas of your plan may deserve a closer look: https://scorecard.matt25capital.com

And if you would rather talk it through with someone, you are always welcome to call Matt25 Capital at 620-670-9455. There is no rush and no pressure. We are here when you are ready.

Will Snodgrass, CFP®, Matt25 Capital, The Woodlands, Texas

Sources: Jessica Hall, "Over 40% of Americans are heading toward retirement 'blind' - with no plan," MarketWatch via Morningstar, Oct. 23, 2026. The Evergreen.ai Financial Decisions Study 2026 (survey of 1,981 U.S. household financial decision-makers aged 25 to 75, fielded Aug. 31, 2026; sample includes an oversample of higher-income households). Allianz Center for the Future of Retirement; Employee Benefit Research Institute; Fidelity Investments, as cited by MarketWatch.