Navigating Geopolitical Storms: A Faithful Look at March 2026
- Will Snodgrass, CFP®
- 4 days ago
- 6 min read
If you turned on the news or checked your portfolio during the month of March 2026, you likely felt a familiar tightening in your chest. We have seen our share of "unprecedented" events over the last few years, but the geopolitical shockwaves sent out by the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict felt particularly heavy. When the Strait of Hormuz closed, and energy prices began to climb, it wasn’t just a matter of "market volatility", it felt like the world was shifting beneath our feet.
For those of us practicing biblical financial stewardship, these moments are the ultimate test of our foundation. Are we building our houses on the shifting sands of the 24-hour news cycle, or are we anchored to something deeper?
As a CFP® professional, I spend my days looking at charts, spreadsheets, and economic forecasts. But as a fellow believer, I know that numbers only tell half the story. The other half is found in how we respond to the "storms" with wisdom, discipline, and a peace that surpasses understanding.
March 2026: A Month of Disruption
To understand where we are going, we have to be honest about where we have been. March 2026 was, by almost any metric, one of the most volatile months for global markets in recent history.
The primary driver was the sudden escalation of military operations in the Middle East. On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a coordinated effort against Iranian military targets [1]. In response, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil transit point, effectively closed.
The market response was swift and sharp:
S&P 500 Performance: The index declined approximately 5.1% for the month. To put that in perspective, it was the largest single-month decline in a year.
The "Fear Gauge" (VIX): The CBOE Volatility Index spiked above 30, reflecting a high level of investor anxiety.
The Energy Surge: While most sectors suffered, the Energy sector surged by an estimated 36.9% as Brent Crude oil prices crossed $100 per barrel for the first time in four years, eventually peaking near $126 [4].
The Forward-Looking Nature of Markets
One of the most important lessons in christian wealth management is learning to see past the immediate crisis. Markets are forward-looking. They don’t just react to what is happening; they react to what they think will happen next.
We saw this play out beautifully on March 31st. After a month of grueling headlines, reports emerged that Iran was signaling an openness to ceasefire negotiations. The reaction was almost instantaneous. The S&P 500 gained 2.91% in a single session, its best day since May, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged over 1,100 points.
Why does this matter? Because it reminds us that the market often begins to recover while the headlines are still scary. If you had exited the market on March 30th out of fear, you would have missed one of the most significant relief rallies of the year. In the world of financial planning for christians, we recognize that we cannot time the market, but we can trust the process of disciplined stewardship.
Putting the "Storm" in Context
When we are in the middle of a storm, it feels like it will never end. However, Scripture and history both encourage us to take a longer view. The S&P 500 has experienced significant monthly declines throughout its history, and it has recovered from every single one of them.
Consider these recent historical snapshots:
March 2020 (COVID-19): −12.5% decline. The world felt like it was shutting down.
March 2025 (Tariff Concerns): −5.75% decline.
March 2026 (Iran Conflict): −5.1% decline.
In each of these instances, the "experts" on television were often predicting the worst. Yet, over the last decade, the S&P 500 has delivered a total return of approximately 277%, compounding at roughly 14.2% annually [3]. This growth occurred despite the drawdowns of 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025.
Missing the best days in the market is often more damaging than enduring the worst ones. Research consistently shows that missing just the 10 best trading days over a 10-year period can reduce your total returns by approximately half. Interestingly, many of those "best days" happen during periods of peak uncertainty, just like we saw on March 31st.
Stewardship vs. Fear: Navigating the Macro Picture
The conflict in the Middle East has had second-order effects that we must account for in our planning. Rising energy prices have pushed the estimated U.S. CPI (inflation) to approximately 3.4%, up from 2.4% in February [4]. This has caused a ripple effect in the bond market:
The 10-Year Treasury yield reached a peak of 4.46%.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.38%.
Gold, surprisingly, declined about 12.9% in March as investors rotated into energy assets, reminding us that even "safe havens" can be volatile in the short term.
As we look at these numbers, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed. But stewardship isn't about having a crystal ball; it's about having a faithful plan.
At Matt25 Capital, we believe that biblical financial stewardship involves preparing for the "years of lean" during the "years of plenty." We don't plan for a perfect world; we plan for a fallen world that is subject to geopolitical strife and economic shifts.
What We Are Monitoring in April
As we move into the second quarter of 2026, there are several key areas we are watching closely:
The Strait of Hormuz: A full resumption of shipping is necessary to stabilize global supply chains.
Federal Reserve Policy: With inflation ticking up to 3.4%, the "rate cut" narrative of early 2026 may be delayed.
Corporate Earnings: April will bring the first data on how the "oil shock" has impacted the profitability of the companies we own.
While these factors are important, they do not change the underlying principles of a well-constructed financial plan. As Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, recently noted: "Some of the market’s strongest days came amid the most unsettling headlines" [3].
The Long View: A Faithful Perspective
Financial plans are designed to accommodate periods of volatility, not just periods of calm. A $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 back in 2006 would have grown to more than $80,000 by today, even after navigating the Great Recession, a global pandemic, and multiple wars [2].
That growth wasn't the result of "perfect timing." It was the result of faithful, disciplined, long-term allocation.
Retirement is not a destination where we stop being stewards; it is a transition into a new season of stewardship. If the events of March have left you feeling unsettled about your own retirement readiness, we encourage you to take a proactive step.
Take Action: The Christian Retirement Readiness Scorecard
Are you prepared to weather the next storm? We have developed a tool specifically for believers to help you assess where you stand. It takes less than two minutes and provides a clear picture of your readiness across income, taxes, and stewardship.
Closing Thoughts
We are here for you, especially in moments like this. The headlines may be loud, but our God is sovereign, and a disciplined plan is a powerful tool for peace. If you have questions about how these global events affect your specific situation, please reach out to us at Matt25 Capital.
Reviewing your plan during periods of uncertainty is not a sign of weakness: it is one of the most valuable activities available to a long-term investor.
References
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) – March 2026 Geopolitical Report.
Social Security Administration – Historical Life Expectancy and Market Data.
BlackRock – 2026 Annual Chairman’s Letter.
IEA Oil Market Report & Bloomberg Economics – March 2026 Estimates.
Important Disclosures This communication is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or to adopt any particular investment strategy. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index and cannot be invested in directly.
William Snodgrass, CFP® professional is a registered representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. Advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network®.
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc. (CFP Board) owns the CFP® certification mark, the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® certification mark, and the CFP® (with plaque design) logo in the United States, which it authorizes use of by individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.
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