November 2025 Market & Economic Recap: What Happened and What May Lie Ahead

Will Snodgrass
Dec 5, 2025
7 min read

November 2025 proved to be one of those months that looked calm on the surface but had plenty of undercurrents worth paying attention to. If you're like many of our clients, you probably noticed your statements and wondered what all the market chatter really meant for your long-term financial goals.

As your fiduciary asset managers, we want to walk you through what actually happened last month and share some thoughts on what factors might shape the remainder of 2025. Remember, we do not make market predictions; we're here to help you understand the landscape so you can make informed decisions about your financial stewardship.

All market commentary reflects information available as of the date of publication. This commentary reflects publicly available data and third-party research believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed.

The Market's Tale of Two Cities

November highlighted something we've been watching all year: the stark divide in market performance. The equity markets remained supported by powerful structural forces, but the underlying picture revealed some fascinating contrasts that every investor should understand.

The S&P 500's concentration remained elevated, with the top five companies contributing significantly to index gains while the median S&P stock lagged behind, according to Madison Investments¹. Think about that for a moment: the top 10 stocks accounted for nearly 40% of the entire index—an elevated share by historical standards, according to Madison Investments¹. For clarity, market concentration refers to a small number of companies making up a large share of an index’s total value or returns.

This wasn't just a statistical quirk. It reflected a market increasingly driven by artificial intelligence optimism, with mega-cap technology stocks benefiting disproportionately from investor confidence that the billions being poured into AI infrastructure would eventually generate meaningful returns¹.

For those of us committed to faithful stewardship, this concentration raises important questions about diversification and risk management that we'll address shortly.

Federal Reserve: Mixed Signals and Market Reactions

The Federal Reserve continued to be a major focus for investors throughout November. While markets had already benefited from October's quarter-point rate cut, investors maintained high confidence in additional cuts through 2026¹.

However, Fed Chairman Powell attempted to moderate these expectations during the month, cautioning that a December rate cut was "not a foregone conclusion – far from it," citing mixed opinions among the governing board¹.

As fiduciary asset managers, we always remind our clients that Fed policy can shift quickly, and it's crucial to maintain portfolios that can weather various interest rate environments. For retirees and near-retirees, rate expectations influence the yields on cash and bonds, the affordability of lifetime income products, and the sustainability of withdrawal strategies, so it’s wise to stress-test plans for different rate paths.

Trade Tensions Show Signs of Easing

One positive development in November was the easing of tensions between the U.S. and China. The two nations reached tariff compromises that included China agreeing to resume soybean purchases, ease restrictions on rare-earth exports, and strengthen efforts to curb fentanyl production¹.

While this was encouraging news, evidence continued to mount that tariff costs were making their way to consumers, with expectations that these impacts would become more evident during the holiday shopping season¹. For investors aged 50 and above, these inflationary pressures can be particularly concerning as they approach or enter retirement.

The Hidden Strength: Liquidity and Market Structure

Here's something that doesn't make headlines but significantly impacts your portfolio: the substantial pool of cash sitting on the sidelines. Over $20 trillion in cash remained across various U.S. financial instruments during November, representing both dry powder and confidence in our financial system, according to Carnegie Invest².

According to Carnegie Invest², this liquidity positioned the market above long-term trendlines, nearly three years ahead of schedule, providing potential fuel for equities if interest rates continued their declining trajectory. The structure of market inflows also remained highly supportive throughout the month.

Consider this: the average U.S. worker contributes roughly $8,500 annually to their 401(k), with approximately 71% allocated to equities—that’s about $6,000 per person flowing into stock markets, largely through passive index funds, according to Carnegie Invest². When you combine these structural inflows with share buybacks and corporate M&A activity that reduced overall stock supply, you can understand why markets remained elevated despite various uncertainties².

ETFs surpassed the $1 trillion mark in inflows for the year during November, meaning more money was chasing fewer opportunities—a dynamic that helps explain market resilience but also raises questions about valuations, according to Carnegie Invest².

Prefer to talk it through? Schedule time with us for a quick check-in.

Consumer and Corporate Health: A Mixed Picture

Despite ongoing concerns about inflation and borrowing costs, consumers and corporate balance sheets remained solid in November, according to Carnegie Invest². At the same time, a clear bifurcation emerged: higher earners kept spending while lower-income households felt increasing pressure².

Why this matters for retirement planning: persistent bifurcation can slow overall growth and amplify volatility. We encourage you to stress-test your plan for different spending and market scenarios, especially around healthcare costs and discretionary expenses.

Financial institutions reported healthy trading and lending activity with contained anticipated loan losses, though approaches varied—some set aside little for provisions while others remained cautious². Technology companies posted solid results and maintained high forward expectations².

For Christian investors focused on long-term stewardship, it’s a reminder to consider both financial outcomes and community impact in your planning.

Emerging Risks Worth Monitoring

November also brought attention to some areas of concern that warrant careful monitoring. Private credit emerged as a significant risk factor. In plain terms, private credit generally refers to loans made by non-bank lenders directly to companies, often with less public disclosure and liquidity than traditional bonds. While popular and attracting trillions in capital as an alternative to traditional bonds and equities, the opacity of many private credit structures represented a notable vulnerability².

Recent bankruptcies and questionable accounting practices in this sector served as reminders of embedded risks that aren't always apparent on the surface². As fiduciary asset managers, we believe transparency and understanding what you own remains crucial, especially in complex alternative investments.

We also observed significant speculative activity in smaller companies tied to critical minerals and quantum computing themes. Some stocks moved from mere cents to double-digit share prices in under two years². While these moves might represent transformational technological changes, the volatility patterns resembled previous speculative bubbles, something worth considering for any portfolio allocation decisions. That kind of speculation is very different from long-term investing, which focuses on cash flows, diversification, and disciplined rebalancing over time.

What May Lie Ahead for the Rest of 2025

Looking toward the final weeks of 2025, several factors appear likely to influence market dynamics. The key is to remain focused on your long-term financial goals while staying aware of these potential influences.

Market resilience appears supported by structural factors including substantial liquidity, consistent 401(k) inflows, strong corporate balance sheets, and ongoing corporate stock repurchase activity. However, investors face the paradox of more money chasing fewer opportunities due to market concentration. When markets are concentrated, keeping diversified, risk-aware allocations can help manage single-company or sector risk; diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Key factors to monitor include the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy decisions, the impact of tariff costs on consumer spending patterns, developments in the private credit market, and whether speculative activity in emerging technology sectors proves sustainable or represents bubble-like dynamics.

Biblical Stewardship in Uncertain Times

As Christians called to faithful stewardship, these market dynamics remind us of timeless principles. Ecclesiastes 11:2 advises us to "give portions to seven, yes to eight, for you do not know what disaster may come upon the land." This wisdom about diversification feels particularly relevant given the elevated market concentration we witnessed in November¹.

The parable of the talents also comes to mind. We're called to be wise stewards of the resources entrusted to us, neither burying them in fear nor chasing every speculative opportunity that comes along. This means maintaining a balanced approach that considers both opportunity and risk, always keeping our ultimate purpose in mind. Good stewardship means making intentional, not emotional, financial decisions.

Recognizing these market dynamics is vital for making informed investment decisions that align with both your financial objectives and your faith values. Whether you're navigating retirement planning, considering estate planning strategies, or simply seeking to grow your resources for future generations, understanding the current landscape helps inform better stewardship decisions.

Your Next Steps

The events of November 2025 remind us that markets are complex, driven by numerous factors that interact in ways that aren't always predictable. As we head toward the end of the year, now might be an excellent time to review your portfolio allocation, ensure your investment strategy aligns with your faith values, and confirm your financial plan remains on track for your long-term objectives. Now is also a strategic time to review tax-efficient planning opportunities before year-end.

If you've been wondering how these market developments affect your specific situation, or if you'd like to discuss how to position your portfolio for faithful stewardship in 2026 and beyond, we'd welcome the opportunity to have that conversation with you. We help retirees create durable income strategies designed to weather uncertain markets. If you’d like a second opinion on your retirement plan, we’re happy to offer one. Sometimes, a brief discussion can provide the clarity and peace of mind that makes all the difference in your financial journey.

Your future self will thank you for taking a proactive approach to your financial stewardship, and we're here to guide you every step of the way.

Ready to discuss how these market developments impact your financial plan? Contact us to schedule a complimentary, no-obligation consultation where we can review your specific situation and explore strategies aligned with your faith and financial goals.

Important Disclosures: This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security. Market commentary reflects information available as of the date of publication and may change without notice. Investing involves risks including loss of principal; diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market conditions can change rapidly, and there can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. This commentary reflects publicly available data and third-party research believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

About the author: Will Snodgrass, CFP®, is President of Matt25 Capital and serves Christian families and business owners. Matt25 Capital is affiliated with Commonwealth Financial Network®, a FINRA/SEC-registered broker-dealer.

References:

Madison Investments, Monthly Market Update, November 2025.
Carnegie Invest, Monthly Market Commentary, November 2025.

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